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Where Are Dutch House Prices Headed in 2026? What the Data Tells Us

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Realto

Published on Monday, Oct 6, 2025

After a hot 2025, most forecasters still expect Dutch house prices to rise in 2026, just more slowly. Rabobank’s latest housing quarterlies point to ~+5.5% growth next year (some earlier notes mention ~+5.7–6.6% depending on averaging), while ABN AMRO sticks to a +3% call. The message is consistent: the market remains tight, but momentum cools as affordability bites. ABN AMRO+Rabobank

Where we stand now. Prices were nearly 8% higher in August 2025 than a year earlier, according to CBS. Growth has slowed from double-digit spring prints, but remains solid. Credit data tells a similar story: banks’ outstanding mortgage book grew 5.2% YoY in June, the fastest since before the GFC. CBS

Why a slower rise is still the base case.
First, structural scarcity hasn’t gone away. New-build supply remains constrained, so even modest demand keeps upward pressure on prices. Second, incomes rose briskly in 2025, lifting borrowing capacity; that support doesn’t vanish overnight. Third, mortgage rates and spreads will shape the pace. Watch the DNB (De Nederlandsche Bank, the Dutch Central Bank) dashboard for direction. Rabobank

What could cool 2026 further.
ABN AMRO expects slower wage growth and renewed affordability constraints to take some heat out of the market, hence its +3% forecast. Macro risks also linger. Dutch Central Bank scenarios around tariffs and trade suggest weaker growth could weigh on demand in 2026 if headwinds intensify. ABN AMRO

Regional nuance.
The growth leaderboard may shuffle. ABN AMRO sees slower price gains in Amsterdam/Rotterdam/The Hague than in Utrecht’s surroundings and many rural areas. This is partly reflecting differing supply pipelines and budget constraints. ABN AMRO Bank

Scenarios to keep in mind.

  • Base case: +3% to +5.5% price growth in 2026 (blend of bank forecasts).

  • Upside: rates edge lower and supply stays tight → closer to ~5–6% (Rabobank-like path).

  • Downside: growth shock or higher rates → low single digits, with some regions flat. Reuters

What to watch next.

  • Monthly CBS house-price prints to see if the deceleration sticks.

  • DNB mortgage-rate dashboard and lending volume.

  • Wage data and Housing Market Monitor updates from banks. CBS Monthly

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